Back to the Bomb? Trump’s Nuclear Testing Gamble and the Politics of Fear

Panos Kountouriotis

November 1, 2025

Introduction: A Statement That Shook the World

On October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced from the Oval Office a decision unprecedented in 33 years:

"I have ordered the Pentagon to immediately begin preparations to resume nuclear testing in the United States. We will do this on par with other countries that are already doing it."

Within hours, the news made headlines worldwide. From the Nevada National Security Site to the Kremlin and Beijing, the international community faced a question long considered settled: Will the global moratorium on nuclear tests be broken?

1. Historical Context: From 1945 to 1992

Timeline of Key Nuclear Events

Date	Event
July 16, 1945	First nuclear test (Trinity, New Mexico)
1945–1992	2,056 nuclear tests worldwide (1,032 by the U.S., 715 by the USSR)
1992	President George H. W. Bush institutes U.S. testing moratorium
1996	Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) signed
2025	Only North Korea has conducted nuclear tests this century; the five major nuclear powers (U.S., Russia, China, France, UK) have refrained from explosive testing since 1992.

2. What Exactly Did Trump Say?

In his speech, Trump claimed:

• Russia and China are conducting secret nuclear tests.
• The U.S. must restore the credibility of its nuclear arsenal.
• The first test would occur as soon as possible, likely in Nevada.

Reality check: Neither country has conducted an explosive nuclear test since 1996 (China) and 1990 (Russia).

3. What Are Subcritical Tests?

3.1 Definition

A subcritical test is a nuclear physics experiment that does not involve a self-sustaining chain reaction. There is no nuclear explosion, and it does not violate the CTBT.

3.2 How They Work (Step-by-Step)

Step	Action
1	Plutonium-239 placed in a containment vessel
2	Chemical explosives (HMX) arranged around it
3	Compression applied for microseconds (10⁻⁶ sec)
4	Emission of neutrons and gamma rays
5	Measurements captured by sensors
6	Reaction halted
7	Data analyzed with supercomputers

3.3 Technical Characteristics

Parameter	Value
Plutonium amount	1–5 kg
Explosion energy	< 1 ton TNT
Depth	300–1,000 meters
Seismic impact	< 2.0 Richter
Radioactive gases	< 0.1 Bq/m³

4. Who Conducts Subcritical Tests? (2025)

Country	Last Test	Frequency	Location
U.S.	Sept 27, 2023 (Pollux)	Every 1–3 years	Nevada (U1a Complex)
Russia	2023	Rare	Novaya Zemlya
China	2024	1–2 per year	Lop Nur
France / UK	—	None	—

Only three countries regularly conduct these tests, all legally.

5. Implications of Subcritical Testing

Category	Pros	Cons
Safety	Verifies weapons will not explode accidentally	Small accident risk
Environment	No atmospheric radiation	Minor krypton/xenon leakage
Health	—	Worker exposure <5 mSv
Politics	Maintains deterrence	“Loophole” in CTBT
Economy	$2–5 billion/year (U.S.)	High cost

Subcritical tests remain the safe, legal method of nuclear stockpile maintenance.

6. Full Nuclear Tests: What Resuming Them Would Mean

6.1 Technical Requirements

Step	Estimated Time
Excavation of test site	6–12 months
Installation of sensors	3–6 months
Congressional approval	?
First test	2026–2027 (early estimate)

6.2 Environmental Consequences

• Radioactive leakage: Tritium, Iodine-131 into soil/water
• Seismic impact: 4.0–5.0 Richter
• Climatic impact: negligible (underground)

6.3 Political Consequences

Country	Likely Reaction
Russia	Resumption of tests (Novaya Zemlya)
China	Expansion of program (Lop Nur)
North Korea	New tests
India / Pakistan	Possible escalation

Risk: Collapse of the moratorium → a new nuclear arms race.

7. Reactions (November 1, 2025)

7.1 International

Entity	Statement
CTBTO	"Any nuclear test is a step backward."
Russia (Lavrov)	"We will respond if one occurs."
China	"The U.S. undermines global stability."
European Union	"We call for restraint."

7.2 Domestic (U.S.)

• Democrats: "Irresponsible, dangerous, unnecessary."
• Environmental organizations: Protests in Nevada.
• Scientists (Union of Concerned Scientists): "Simulations are sufficient."

8. Alternatives: Why Simulations Are Sufficient

Method	Advantages
Supercomputers (Sierra, El Capitan)	100 petaflops → 99.9% accuracy
National Ignition Facility (NIF)	Laser-induced nuclear fusion experiments
Missile testing (Minuteman III, Trident II)	Performance verification without nuclear detonation

Conclusion from scientists: "Explosive tests are not required to ensure the weapons work."

9. Conclusion: The 2025 Crossroads

Trump’s statement is not yet a test, but an order to prepare. As of November 1, 2025:

• No test has been scheduled.
• No country has broken the moratorium.
• Subcritical tests remain the legal and safe way to maintain the nuclear stockpile.

Three Possible Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	Outcome
Cancellation	40%	Congress blocks funding
Subcritical test	50%	"Show of strength" without explosion
Full nuclear test	10%	New nuclear arms race

Analytical Commentary

From a neutral analytical perspective, the announcement reflects the strategic logic of nuclear deterrence: maintaining perceived credibility of the arsenal without crossing the threshold of full-scale nuclear detonation. The political timing also indicates a use of power projection through public signaling, aimed both at domestic and international audiences. Resuming full-scale tests could destabilize decades of multilateral agreements and potentially trigger a cascading response among other nuclear powers.

Closing Thoughts

The nuclear era did not end in 1992; only the era of explosions concluded. The 2025 decision will determine whether the world returns to full-scale nuclear testing—or continues to rely on carefully managed, simulation-based deterrence that preserves the fragile balance keeping humanity away from the nuclear brink. This choice is as much political and moral as it is technical.

— Panos Kountouriotis