Executive Brief

Greece 2025: The Eastern Mediterranean’s Five-Fold Strategic Hub

Panagiotis Kountouriotis — Nicosia, 23 November 2023

By 2025, the Eastern Mediterranean has moved from offshore hydrocarbon geopolitics to the geopolitics of connectivity, security and resilience. Greece now functions as a five-pillar hub — energy, trade, digital, defense and geopolitical stability — aligning closely with EU, US and regional priorities.

Key Findings

1. Energy: Interconnectors over Pipelines

EU policy shifts favor electricity interconnection and renewables. Greece consolidates a southern gateway role through:

• Revythoussa LNG hub and the Alexandroupolis FSRU.
• The Vertical Corridor linking flows to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Ukraine.
• Great Sea Interconnector (Cyprus–Crete–Attica) advancing with state support and EU–US backing.
• GREGY — a 3 GW Egypt–Crete green link under advanced study with potential NEOM/hydrogen extensions.

Shift: value now lies in network control and storage — not merely resource ownership.

2. Trade: Complementing the Suez

The Red Sea crisis (2023–2025) changed trade flows; Greek ports gained structurally:

• Piraeus & Thessaloniki: ~+28% transshipment (2024–2025).
• Piraeus Pier IV expansion (Cosco) and continued CAPEX cycles.
• Both ports integrated into the EU’s Critical Connectivity Corridors.
• Greece–UAE–Saudi trilateral keeps IMEC elements alive despite project freeze.

3. Digital Hub: Invisible Infrastructure

• East-to-Med Data Corridor (India–Oman–Saudi Arabia–Cyprus–Crete–Italy).
• New subsea cables and hyperscale data centers (e.g., by major cloud providers) in Attica.
• A secure, low-latency route bypassing Suez/Red Sea bottlenecks.

4. Defense & Security

• Upgraded MDCA with the U.S.; Souda and Alexandroupolis as NATO logistics hubs.
• Participation in Aspides and Prosperity Guardian to protect Red Sea SLOCs.
• 3+1 format (Greece–Cyprus–Israel + U.S.) remains the region’s stable cooperation axis.

Geopolitical Stability

Post-2023 Turkey has shown pragmatic signals: no new NAVTEX against the Greek continental shelf, engagement in technical talks on the Vertical Corridor and exploratory interest in Revythoussa. The Turkey–Libya maritime memorandum remains dormant and commercially unattractive.

Strategic Implication — The region’s competitive advantage is now connectivity infrastructure, not hydrocarbons. Execution speed in building cables, ports, bases and data routes will determine influence.

Conclusion

Greece in 2025 is the Eastern Mediterranean’s most versatile and indispensable node. Its five-fold hub status positions the country to shape the region’s strategic realignment over the next decade — not just react to it.

Policy Brief • Eastern Mediterranean • Connectivity • Security

Author: Panagiotis Kountouriotis — Nicosia, 23 November 2023