The European Union, through its new defense initiative SAFE (Security Action for Europe), is moving toward greater strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, Turkey—an applicant to join SAFE and a long-standing NATO member—finds itself at a critical geopolitical crossroads. In a potential confrontation between Europe and Russia, would Ankara turn against Moscow, or continue to play both sides? This analysis explores Turkey’s strategic options, its ties with Russia and the EU, and the internal and external forces shaping its stance.