What Went Wrong With Hamas’s Demilitarization?

What Comes Next in the Middle East: The Israel–Hamas Deal, Netanyahu’s Ultimatum, and Turkey’s Strategic Position

The recent agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the Trump administration, marks a pivotal moment in the long-standing conflict in Gaza. With the return of 20 Israeli hostages and the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, the first phase of the peace initiative has concluded. Yet, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in his exclusive interview with CBS News, “the next phase is the demilitarization of Hamas — or all hell breaks loose.”

📜 Key Elements of the Agreement

• Exchange of hostages and prisoners.
• Immediate humanitarian aid delivery to Gaza.
• Demand for full disarmament of Hamas and dismantling of weapons infrastructure.
• Gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from parts of Gaza.
• Unresolved issues: governance in Gaza, the fate of deceased hostages, and Palestinian statehood.

🗣️ Rhetoric and Diplomatic Tension

Netanyahu’s use of the phrase “all hell breaks loose” — echoing Trump’s own language — serves as a rhetorical ultimatum: Hamas must disarm peacefully or face military force. This intensifies diplomatic pressure but also reveals the fragility of the deal. Hamas has already rejected demilitarization, while hostage families demand the return of all remains before further peace steps are taken.

🧭 Turkey as a Strategic Actor: Maneuvering on a Volatile Chessboard

Though not directly involved in the negotiations, Turkey maintains strong ties with the Palestinian side and has historically supported Hamas. Its position must be understood within a broader strategic framework in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Muslim world.

Strategic Interests

• Energy and maritime zones: Turkey seeks access to regional energy projects, where Israel is a key player.
• Role in the Muslim world: Ankara aims to champion Palestinian rights, competing with Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• Soft power and revisionism: Turkey promotes an autonomous Islamic democracy model and seeks influence as a regional mediator.

Likely Position on the Agreement

• Cautious acceptance: Turkey may avoid outright rejection but highlight the lack of guarantees for Palestinians.
• Parallel diplomacy: Possible coordination with Qatar and Egypt on humanitarian aid and oversight mechanisms.
• Crisis leverage: If the deal collapses, Turkey could amplify its narrative of Israeli aggression and boost its regional standing.

🕊️ Historical Echoes and Future Prospects

This agreement recalls past efforts like Camp David and Oslo, which failed due to vague terms and lack of institutional safeguards. Netanyahu cites the Abraham Accords as proof of regional peace momentum, but the challenge now lies in internal acceptance and enforcement by non-state actors like Hamas.

🔮 What to Watch Next

• Hamas’s response and the position of Palestinian authorities.
• Arab states’ reactions, especially those aligned with the Abraham Accords.
• Implementation and monitoring of demilitarization.
• Humanitarian developments in Gaza.
• Pressure from hostage families regarding the return of remains.
• Turkey’s strategic moves and potential emergence as an alternative mediator.

As the region stands at a crossroads, the next steps will determine whether this deal becomes a turning point — or another chapter in a cycle of unresolved conflict.