Executive Brief

Greece 2025: The Eastern Mediterranean’s Five-Fold Strategic Hub

Panagiotis Kountouriotis — Nicosia, 23 November 2023

By 2025, the Eastern Mediterranean has moved from offshore hydrocarbon geopolitics to the geopolitics of connectivity, security and resilience. Greece now functions as a five-pillar hub — energy, trade, digital, defense and geopolitical stability — aligning closely with EU, US and regional priorities.

Eastern Mediterranean: A New Energy Map and Shifting Geopolitics Through 2030 Introduction

Eastern Mediterranean: A New Energy Map and Shifting Geopolitics Through 2030

Introduction
The Eastern Mediterranean is undergoing significant realignment in its energy landscape. The EU is working to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, while Israel and Egypt scale up production. Greece is emerging as an LNG transit hub, and Turkey is pursuing greater energy autonomy. These developments are reshaping the region’s geopolitical balance. The window for monetizing hydrocarbons is narrowing as the global shift to cleaner energy accelerates. Countries that move quickly on investment and cooperation will hold strategic advantage by 2030.

Back to the Bomb? Trump’s Nuclear Testing Gamble and the Politics of Fear

Panos Kountouriotis

November 1, 2025

Introduction: A Statement That Shook the World

On October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced from the Oval Office a decision unprecedented in 33 years:

"I have ordered the Pentagon to immediately begin preparations to resume nuclear testing in the United States. We will do this on par with other countries that are already doing it."

Within hours, the news made headlines worldwide. From the Nevada National Security Site to the Kremlin and Beijing, the international community faced a question long considered settled: Will the global moratorium on nuclear tests be broken?

Think Tank • CEMPS

Greece Maintains Edge in the Skies as Turkey Orders Eurofighters

Panos Kountouriotis • 29 October 2025 • Publication: Center for Eastern Mediterranean Policy Studies (CEMPS)

Turkey has confirmed a purchase of 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets from the United Kingdom, capping a four-year negotiation. While the aircraft will bring advanced weapons and sensors to Ankara, current force developments leave the Hellenic Air Force with a durable operational advantage over the Aegean.

The Post-Ersin Tatar Era in Cyprus

Analysis

The Post-Ersin Tatar Era in Cyprus: Realism, Dependence, and Tufan Erhürman’s Gamble

Analysis of the New Turkish Cypriot Leader’s Statements and the Prospects for the Cyprus Issue

Panos Kountouriotis

Published: October 26, 2025

Summary:
Tufan Erhürman’s landslide victory in the occupied territories signals a potential end to Ersin Tatar’s “two-state” policy. However, his initial statements blend moderation with firm “red lines” on political equality and Turkey’s guarantees, suggesting cautious openness to dialogue constrained by Ankara’s influence.

CEMPS

Netanyahu’s Rejection and Turkey’s Diplomatic Isolation in Post-War Gaza

Center for Eastern Mediterranean Policy Studies (CEMPS) — Publication: 23 October 2025 — Author: [Panos Kountouriotis]

Executive Summary

The Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal on 22 October 2025 to permit Turkish military forces in Gaza is a decision with meaningful diplomatic consequences. This stance not only excludes Turkey from the emerging post-war stabilization mechanism but also deepens Ankara’s diplomatic isolation from the principal processes shaping the future of Gaza. Although Turkey retains indirect influence through humanitarian diplomacy, contacts with Hamas, and its NATO ties, this decision significantly constrains Ankara’s ambition to play a central, leading role in Gaza’s post-ceasefire reconstruction and stabilization.

Why Israel Opposes Armed Turkish Forces in Gaza

Prepared for publication — October 22, 2025

Summary: Israel has categorically rejected the prospect of armed Turkish forces operating in the Gaza Strip as part of any post-war stabilization mission. The rejection is rooted in a dense mix of historical grievances, rhetorical escalation by Ankara, tangible security concerns, legal and sovereignty questions, and broader regional competition for influence.

Nicosia, Cyprus —

Turkey’s Plan to Scrap Tax Exemption Set to Hit 84 Equity Funds

Turkey’s proposal to end a key tax exemption on certain equity-dominated mutual funds is set to hit 84 funds managing about 71 billion liras ($2.1 billion), according to an impact analysis reviewed by Bloomberg.

By Panagiotis Kountouriotis • Published: Oct 21, 2025 • Tags: Bloomberg, Markets, TRY/USD

Funds in Focus Investor Impact Market & Fiscal Effects Winners & Losers Outlook

International Strategy Analysis — October 2025

Turkey at the Crossroads: Would It Fight Russia in a European Conflict?

The European Union, through its new defense initiative SAFE (Security Action for Europe), is moving toward greater strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, Turkey—an applicant to join SAFE and a long-standing NATO member—finds itself at a critical geopolitical crossroads. In a potential confrontation between Europe and Russia, would Ankara turn against Moscow, or continue to play both sides? This analysis explores Turkey’s strategic options, its ties with Russia and the EU, and the internal and external forces shaping its stance.

Elections in Occupied Cyprus Signal Strategic Shifts Under Turkey’s Influence

October 17, 2025 Think Tank Analysis Unit Focus: Eastern Mediterranean | Cyprus Issue | Turkish Cypriot Politics

What Went Wrong With Hamas’s Demilitarization?

What Comes Next in the Middle East: The Israel–Hamas Deal, Netanyahu’s Ultimatum, and Turkey’s Strategic Position

The recent agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by the Trump administration, marks a pivotal moment in the long-standing conflict in Gaza. With the return of 20 Israeli hostages and the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, the first phase of the peace initiative has concluded. Yet, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned in his exclusive interview with CBS News, “the next phase is the demilitarization of Hamas — or all hell breaks loose.”